Entries by Sydney Kaehler

Q4 2026 Market Outlook: Higher Rates, Greater Dispersion, New Opportunities

The Macro View: The Next Three Months – A Bull Market with a Higher Hurdle U.S. equity and interest-rate outlook: October 2026 through early January 2027 By David Miller, Chief Investment Officer, Catalyst Funds, Rational Funds, Strategy Shares ETFs Commentary as of October 7, 2026 The biggest upcoming risk to U.S. equities over the next […]

When Rates Rise, Convertibles Can Shine

With the Fed entering a new tightening cycle, Frank Timons of Pier 88 Investment Partners looks at how stocks, bonds, and investment grade convertibles have historically performed when rates rise. He also explains why convertibles may offer the potential for upside participation with downside protection in the current market.

Higher Yields: Not Necessarily Good News for Traditional Fixed Income Investors

Since the Global Financial Crisis, fixed-income investors have been fixated on the Fed Funds Rate — but this year, the market’s focus has shifted to long-term rates, and the results for traditional fixed income haven’t been pretty. The good news: short duration fixed income, including parts of the corporate credit market, is again proving to be a useful part of the solution. As Larry Holzenthaler, Senior Portfolio Manager for Fixed Income at Catalyst Funds, explains, senior corporate loans and high yield corporates have held up notably well through both the rate hikes since 2022 and the rate cuts since 2024 — and today’s high yield market is arguably higher-quality than it’s ever been.

Defining Alternatives

Put simply, what are alternatives? Think of traditional investments as long-only public stocks, public bonds, or cash — anything else generally falls into the alternative investment universe. As David Miller, Co-Founder and CIO of Catalyst and Rational, puts it: combining multiple uncorrelated return streams isn’t a matter of opinion, it’s math. A traditional 60/40 portfolio is only two return streams, and the math says that’s not enough.

An Introduction to Balanced Risk

Diversification is often called the only free lunch in investing — but most portfolios still lean almost entirely on stocks and bonds. We believe that leaves an entire investment universe on the table: one with a demonstrated ability to perform independent of stocks and bonds when traditional investments struggle. This paper introduces balanced risk strategies and shows how blending in a non-correlated approach like managed futures has historically meant higher returns and shallower drawdowns, without giving up traditional market exposure.